Analyze how lucky you are in Sit and Go’s
Ever wanted to know, if you have been lucky or unlucky after playing a session? Is that big win after a session due to amazing skills - or did you just get lucky? And the other way around - am I really playing my best and got unlucky, or did I just… Well…. Suck!
Jukofyork from the 2+2 forums wrote a wonderful little tool, that will take a bunch of hand histories from PartyPoker (or PokerStars), analyse the all in situations, and determine what your true winrate was.
Buhuhuuu, cry me a river…
In February I took a terrible downswing (-40 buyins!) , and was really beginning to question my play. I felt like I was so unlucky, but when you keep losing, you start to question yourself. I ran this script, and it told me just what I was hoping - I was just running sick bad, and actually had a decent ROI (return on investment), if I was not just so damn unlucky! That made me confident again, and I knew I just had to keep playing, and eventually things would turn around. So they did, and I dug my way out of the hole and ended up a small winner at the end of the month.
Example of 3800 SNG’s
I tried running the tool on the handhistories I had lying around (about 3800), and the above graph is the result. The ActualWinnings is what I actually won (duh!), and the AdjustedWinnings is what I should have won, if I had not been unlucky or lucky. Looks like lady luck owes me 500 bucks!
Download and installation
Download: http://www.jukofyork.com/Juks_BackTestAllInLuck.rar (~27mb)
To unpack, get Winrar
After you unpack, read the README.DOC, and it will tell you what to do.
If you have futher questions about the script, usage and how to create graphs, are best answered in the thread on 2+2, where the author is very active. I suggest you start at the end of the thread, and work your way back, as the beginning of the thread is actually about another similar tool (for FullTilt).
It does NOT account for…
This calculator does NOT account for “cold deck” situations. If you keep pushing kings and run into aces and lose, you might say that is bad luck, but that is not accounted for in these calculations - only all in situations. I have had sessions, where even though I played damn close to perfect, my actual ROI was -70% as calculated with this tool - because I got my ass handed to me by the icecold deck.
April 1st, 2008 at 10:20
[...] but in hindsight I feel I kept playing very close to perfect. I also analyzed my results using a luck analyzer, which confirmed that I was just running very bad, and actually had a decent ROI if I had not been [...]